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畜牧人

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我們的老祖宗在造詞的時(shí)候，是非常樸素辯證的。危機(jī)這個(gè)詞，危中有機(jī)，機(jī)會(huì)只留給有準(zhǔn)備的企業(yè)，史詩(shī)級(jí)豬周期已經(jīng)正式在全球拉開(kāi)了大幕。

目前非瘟的爆發(fā)可以從OIE的官方數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)判斷，注意觀察我重點(diǎn)標(biāo)注的俄羅斯“亞洲部分”疫情，招商證券講的東北疫情爆發(fā)，已經(jīng)可以認(rèn)為實(shí)錘。全球生豬產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈正在面臨最大的挑戰(zhàn)。最近聽(tīng)說(shuō)一個(gè)詞叫不開(kāi)心小豬，懂的人自然懂。以下是我從OIE摘取的亞洲疫情信息：①：8月上半個(gè)月，東歐正在大爆發(fā)，整個(gè)歐洲由于非瘟，短短的十五天內(nèi)損失了161138頭豬，其中僅保加利亞就損失了126,169頭豬，這時(shí)候亞洲疫情相對(duì)平穩(wěn)，僅2903頭。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)發(fā)生5起，其中東北3起疫情（高速檢查2起，野豬一起），這個(gè)時(shí)候，中俄邊境的俄羅斯同時(shí)爆發(fā)了3起疫情，疑似野豬傳播，這是個(gè)征兆。

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②：8月下半個(gè)月歐洲有所好轉(zhuǎn)，損失下降至30000多，越南在全球累計(jì)爆發(fā)的8075起疫情中，占了絕大多數(shù)，6082起，實(shí)在是很驚人，由于中國(guó)只爆發(fā)了一百多起疫情，美國(guó)起初低估了疫情的嚴(yán)重性，但是越南的數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)給美國(guó)人敲響了警鐘，很多專(zhuān)家開(kāi)始如臨大敵。此時(shí)中俄邊境的俄羅斯又爆發(fā)了一起。中國(guó)云南爆發(fā)一起。

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③：在8.30~9.12 這半個(gè)月，歐洲有所平緩，但是亞洲還在爆發(fā)，而且是多點(diǎn)開(kāi)花，疫情在北方有抬頭的趨勢(shì)。國(guó)內(nèi)在寧夏有一起疫情，香港一起疫情。菲律賓爆發(fā)了第一起疫情。中俄邊境的俄羅斯爆發(fā)了17起。注意，東北的邊境線(xiàn)對(duì)面開(kāi)始多點(diǎn)開(kāi)花。從8月的4起，在短短的14天內(nèi)增加了17起。

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④：在9.13~9.26時(shí)間段，東歐繼續(xù)爆發(fā)疫情。與此同時(shí)亞洲的疫情也有所抬頭，需要注意的是，在這短短的半個(gè)月內(nèi)，疫情已經(jīng)傳到了南韓，與此同時(shí)，廣西又爆發(fā)了一起。最嚴(yán)重的是，中俄邊境的俄羅斯境內(nèi)又爆發(fā)了10起。也就是說(shuō)從8.30~9.26,中俄邊境的俄羅斯已經(jīng)爆發(fā)了27起。

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⑤：9.27~10.10，一切開(kāi)始的地方肯尼亞，爆發(fā)了一起，非洲開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)較大規(guī)模的爆發(fā)。亞洲：韓國(guó)爆發(fā)了8起，老撾爆發(fā)47起，俄羅斯亞洲部分爆發(fā)17起，東歐雖然豬群損失減少，但是疫情不斷。

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⑥：10.11~10.24，疫情暫時(shí)放緩，但是韓國(guó)在這短短幾天爆發(fā)了12起，俄羅斯又爆發(fā)了兩起。需要注意的是，中國(guó)廣西又爆發(fā)了一起。

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綜上所述，疫情并不樂(lè)觀，和去年的爆發(fā)時(shí)間何等相似，東北應(yīng)該又開(kāi)始了，有國(guó)際專(zhuān)家認(rèn)為這個(gè)是野豬流竄造成的，一旦病毒在野豬種群內(nèi)播撒，就很難控制。我們又不太可能學(xué)習(xí)川普建個(gè)邊境墻。如下圖：

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最后，以一則新聞收尾：根據(jù)Pipestone獸醫(yī)服務(wù)的Scott Dee博士推斷，非瘟可能已經(jīng)在北美出現(xiàn)了，這將在疫情開(kāi)始的第一年對(duì)美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)造成160億美元的損失，并導(dǎo)致美國(guó)這一年無(wú)法對(duì)外出口豬肉。GIRA的Rupert Claxton認(rèn)為，2019年，中國(guó)的豬肉會(huì)減產(chǎn)1800萬(wàn)噸，而2020年將會(huì)減產(chǎn)2400萬(wàn)噸。會(huì)議的最后，由我最欣賞的大佬Brett Stuart發(fā)表講話(huà)，他再一次講到：中國(guó)可能永遠(yuǎn)也無(wú)法恢復(fù)18年的豬種群數(shù)量，并且無(wú)法從全球進(jìn)口這一塊來(lái)彌補(bǔ)豬肉短缺，現(xiàn)在很多散養(yǎng)戶(hù)明知道可能會(huì)再次中招，但是他們?yōu)榱祟^均400美元的利潤(rùn)，重新沖了進(jìn)來(lái)，這和賭博無(wú)異，也不利于中國(guó)的疫情控制。

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Astark warning has been given to the global pork industry that African swine Fever (ASF) may already have hit North America.Speaking on the Global Meat News webinar on the epidemic, Dr Scott Dee of Pipestone Veterinary Services said he believes that ASF is already in North America despite the best efforts of the authorities to prevent it reaching the continent."The chances of keeping the virus out of North America are very slim. We import a lot of product from China that the virus can survive in. My guess is that the virus has already entered the country and enters it regularly at port level. What we have going for us is that it hasn't jumped over to pigs so we haven't seen it replicate. I think we're getting bombarded with it at port level."Impact on the pork marketIf it does hit North America, Dee said it would have a dramatic impact on the sector. "We're [analysts] estimating a $16bn loss to the US agricultural industry in the very first year, we won't be able to export pork and there will be an impact on other proteins."He advised producers to "ramp up biosecurity to the highest levels" in order to prevent the spread of the disease.During the webinar, meat director at GIRA Rupert Claxton explained that there will be a decline of 18m tonnes in China this year with another 6m tonnes gone predicted for 2020. He warned that while this would provide an opportunity to sell pork into China over the next five years, it wouldn't last forever. Claxton added that some producers are opting to neglect domestic markets in order to make more now but that this may require a rebalancing down the line. Also speaking in the webinar was National Pig Association chief executive Zoe Davies who took us through what is being done in the UK to prevent the disease entering the country but said that current measures are not adequate and more needs to be done. Chief executive officer of Global AgriTrends Brett Stuart rounded off the presentations and warned that China may never fully recover in terms of pork production and doubted if global producers would be able to make up the shortfall. He also said that some backyard producers in China are attempting to take advantage of soaring pork prices by restarting production without waiting for a vaccine to be developed in order to make money now"These farmers are desperate and taking risks. They assume they're going get ASF again but they stand to make up to $400 per head so are taking that gamble. This desperation in the market is not good for Chinese efforts to contain ASF and is leading to irresponsible behaviour."

作者：tmsmgn
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來(lái)源：雪球
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