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根據(jù)《2000財(cái)政年度國(guó)防授權(quán)法》向國(guó)會(huì)報(bào)告中華人民共和國(guó)的軍事力量
根據(jù)《2000財(cái)政年度國(guó)防授權(quán)法》第1202款關(guān)于“中華人民共和國(guó)年度軍事力量報(bào)告”的規(guī)定,國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)應(yīng)每年提交一份報(bào)告“關(guān)于中國(guó)的當(dāng)前及未來(lái)軍事戰(zhàn)略,報(bào)告中應(yīng)針對(duì)目前和今后20年人民解放軍的可能的軍事技術(shù)的發(fā)展,中國(guó)的安全戰(zhàn)略和軍事戰(zhàn)略,以及軍事組織和作戰(zhàn)觀念.
Section 1202, “Annual Report on Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,” of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Public Law 106-65, provides that the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “on the current and future military strategy of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future course of military-technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy, and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next 20 years.”
內(nèi)容提要
中國(guó)在區(qū)域性的政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的迅速崛起,以成為全球當(dāng)今戰(zhàn)略環(huán)境的一個(gè)重要因素,對(duì)本地區(qū)和世界發(fā)揮著重要影響. 美國(guó)歡迎出現(xiàn)一個(gè)和平與繁榮的中國(guó),鼓勵(lì)中國(guó)作為一個(gè)負(fù)責(zé)任的國(guó)際利益,并對(duì)全球的健康與發(fā)展承擔(dān)更大的責(zé)任. 然而, 中國(guó)還有許多不確定性的未來(lái),包括中國(guó)擴(kuò)充軍力,權(quán)力如何使用.
中國(guó)人民解放軍,正在謀求全面轉(zhuǎn)型,由在其領(lǐng)土的陸軍大規(guī)模消耗戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槟軌虼蜈A短期的, 高強(qiáng)度沖突,對(duì)付高技術(shù)對(duì)手--中國(guó)指為"局部戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)條件下的信息化" 中國(guó)的軍事實(shí)力目前仍然有限,但是, 正如在2006年的四年國(guó)防報(bào)告中所講, 它"具有很大的潛力,在軍事上與美國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),在未來(lái)時(shí)間可能抵消美國(guó)傳統(tǒng)的軍事優(yōu)勢(shì). "
中國(guó)短期內(nèi)的焦點(diǎn)是準(zhǔn)備在臺(tái)灣海峽的可能性軍事行動(dòng),包括美國(guó)的干預(yù), 看來(lái)是它現(xiàn)代化規(guī)劃一個(gè)重要的驅(qū)動(dòng). 不過(guò),分析中國(guó)的軍事采購(gòu)與戰(zhàn)略思維,表明北京也可能因?yàn)橘Y源沖突或領(lǐng)土爭(zhēng)端,而在其它地區(qū)發(fā)生突發(fā)事件.
中國(guó)的軍事轉(zhuǎn)型, 在發(fā)展速度和規(guī)模上,近年來(lái)一直在增長(zhǎng), 購(gòu)買(mǎi)外國(guó)先進(jìn)武器,刺激了本國(guó)國(guó)防和科學(xué)技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè),而且對(duì)武裝部隊(duì)的改革影響深遠(yuǎn).中國(guó)軍隊(duì)日益擴(kuò)大的軍事能力,是改變東亞的軍事平衡的一個(gè)重要因素中國(guó)的戰(zhàn)略能力的改善所產(chǎn)生的影響遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了亞太地區(qū).
中國(guó)戰(zhàn)略力量的現(xiàn)代化,是提高其戰(zhàn)略的打擊能力,例如東風(fēng)-31洲際彈道導(dǎo)彈, 2006年初取得了初步的威脅. 中國(guó)的太空計(jì)劃的標(biāo)志,是2007年1月成功試驗(yàn)一種能直接攻擊衛(wèi)星的武器, 反衛(wèi)星武器對(duì)人類的航天飛行構(gòu)成了危險(xiǎn),并危及到所有空間航天的國(guó)家的資產(chǎn). 中國(guó)在繼續(xù)追求傳統(tǒng)的陸地,空中,海洋,以及空間和網(wǎng)絡(luò)空間的現(xiàn)代戰(zhàn)場(chǎng).
外部世界有限的了解中國(guó)的軍事現(xiàn)代化的動(dòng)機(jī),決策與關(guān)鍵能力. 中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人尚未充分解釋中國(guó)人民解放軍擴(kuò)充軍力的目的或預(yù)期目的. 中國(guó)的行動(dòng),在某些方面似乎越來(lái)越不符合其申明的政策. 中國(guó)實(shí)際的國(guó)防支出仍遠(yuǎn)高于官方公布的數(shù)字. 這種缺乏透明度的中國(guó)軍事事務(wù)自然會(huì)遭到國(guó)際社會(huì)的不理解和迅速的反應(yīng).
China’s rapid rise as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is an important element of today’s strategic environment – one that has signifi cant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, and it encourages China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the health and success of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds the future course China’s leaders will set for their country, including in the area of China’s expanding military power and how that power might be used.The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fi ghting and winning short-duration, highintensity confl icts against high-tech adversaries – which China refers to as “l(fā)ocal wars under conditions of informatization.” China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance, at present, remains limited but, as noted in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it “has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and fi eld disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.”China’s near-term focus on preparing for military contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, appears to be an important driver of its modernization plans. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also generating capabilities for other regional contingencies, such as confl ict over resources or territory. The pace and scope of China’s military transformation has increased in recent years, fueled by continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, and far reaching reforms of the armed forces. The expanding military capabilities of China’s armed forces are a major factor in changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have ramifi cations far beyond the Asia Pacific region.China’s strategic forces modernization is enhancing strategic strike capabilities, as evidenced by the DF-31 intercontinental range ballistic missile, which achieved initial threat availability in 2006. China’s counterspace program – punctuated by the January 2007 successful test of a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon – poses dangers to human space fl ight and puts at risk the assets of all space faring nations. China’s continued pursuit of area denial and anti-access strategies is expanding from the traditional land, air, and sea dimensions of the modern battlefi eld to include space and cyber-space. The outside world has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision-making, and key capabilities supporting China’s military modernization. China’s leaders have yet to explain adequately the purposes or desired endstates of the PLA’s expanding military capabilities. China’s actions in certain areas increasingly appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies. Actual Chinese defense expenditures remain far above offi cially disclosed fi gures. This lack of transparency in China’s military affairs will naturally and understandably prompt international responses that hedge against the unknown. |
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